NEW
DELHI: The weather office may be underestimating the severity of a cyclone
which is hurtling towards the east coast, a meteorologist warned on Friday,
adding that it could be worse than Hurricane Katrina which devastated parts of
the United States in 2005.
Cyclone
Phailin is forecast to hit the coast between Kalingapatnam in Andhra Pradesh
and Paradip in Odisha late on Saturday with a maximum wind speed of 220kmph
(135mph), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its latest
bulletin.
However, both London-based Tropical Storm and
the US navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre forecast winds reaching 315kmph
(195mph) on landfall, classifying Phailin as a Category 5 storm — the most
powerful .
"Phailin is already worse than what the
IMD is forecasting. A recent satellite estimate put Phailin's current intensity
on par with 2005's Hurricane Katrina in the United States," said Eric
Holthaus, meteorologist for Quartz, a US-based online magazine which covers
global economy-related issues.
"Everything I know as a meteorologist
tells me this is the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane — among the strongest
on earth in 2013. That would mean Phailin could be the strongest cyclone ever
measured in the Indian Ocean."
Hurricane Katrina hit the US Gulf coast on
August 29, 2005, killing more than 1,800 people, driving 2.16 million from
their homes and causing $75 billion of damage.
Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal are common at
this time of year, often causing deaths, mass evacuations of coastal villages,
power and telecoms disruptions and widespread damage to crops and property in
eastern India and Bangladesh.
Some experts have compared Phailin with a
super cyclone in 1999 that killed 10,000 people when it battered the coast of
Odisha with wind speeds reaching 300kmph (185mph).
Weather authorities were reluctant to make
comparisons with Katrina and the 1999 cyclone, dismissing reports that Phailin
is half the size of India.
"It is very difficult to compare two
cyclones and their possible impacts. They are different entities and their
crossing point along the coast matters a lot. At the same time, there is a
resemblance in terms of intensity, so there is some similarity with the 1999
cyclone," IMD director general LS Rathore told a news conference.
The cyclone is pretty voluminous, but it's not
half the size of the country and its radius keeps increasing and
decreasing."
Millions affected
Holthaus said he was not familiar with India's
level of disaster preparedness but was concerned that any underestimation of
the storm's intensity could put lives at risk.
"I feel that IMD's underestimate of the
strength and impact of this storm is potentially tragic and could catch many
millions of people off guard," he said. "Anything short of a
full-scale motivation may leave people stranded in flood waters. The highest
possible precautions should be taken immediately."
The cyclone could disrupt the lives of
millions, the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) run by the
United Nations and the European Commission said.
"Up to 6.1 million people can be affected
by wind speeds of cyclone strength or above. In addition, 47,000 people are
living in coastal areas below 5 metres above sea level and can be affected by
storm surge," the GDACS website said.
Authorities began moving thousands of people
living along Odisha's coastline to shelters early on Friday, as weather
officials warned of extensive damage to homes, power and telecoms disruptions
and flooding.
The local government cancelled workers'
holidays during the popular Hindu festival of Dussehra to help prepare for the
storm, and the Army, Navy and Air Force have been put on standby for rescue and
relief operations.
Rations are being prepositioned in cyclone
shelters, schools and other buildings on higher ground, control rooms set up
and fishing suspended.
Aid workers said the authorities' level of
disaster preparedness and early warnings looked satisfactory.
"There has been a phenomenal change in
disaster management in Odisha since the super cyclone in 1999. The action the
leadership has taken is exactly what is needed," said Unni Krishnan, head
of disaster response for Plan International.
(An Excerpt from “The Times of India” )
